Australian researchers have warned HIV-positive people to continue practising safe sex despite controversial suggestions that those receiving medical treatment may not be able to transmit the virus sexually. The Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS stated earlier this year that HIV-positive people receiving effective antiretroviral treatment, and without any other genital infections, could not transmit the virus to a negative partner through sexual contact.
The statement was based on the fact that antiretroviral therapy, commonly in use to treat people with HIV in high-income countries, can lead to undetectable levels of the virus in people's blood.
But an article published by Australian researchers in The Lancet today concludes that if people with undetectable levels of the virus stopped using condoms, it could quadruple the number of new HIV infections over the next 10 years.
Dr David Wilson, a mathematical modelling expert with the National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, said an analysis of risk factors for couples including one HIV-positive partner and one HIV-negative partner showed that the virus could still be transmitted.
"If the Swiss commission's conclusions were adopted at a community level and resulted in reduced condom use, it would be likely to lead to substantial increases in infection," he said.
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That doesn't exactly "debunk" the Swiss statement. The Swiss based their findings on the fact that, having looked at thousands of cases, they couldn't find a single case where someone became poz who fit the criteria they specified.
ReplyDelete"Mathematical models" like the one the Aussies are basing their findings are are based on imperfect datasets. It's not that they're necessarily wrong as much as their findings aren't a slam dunk.
If nothing else - it's a mathematical model that needs to be proven in the real world. Finding numerous cases to support their findings would be a good start!